Ireland and Lisbon

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The blogosphere (Eurosceptic section) is alive with stories that the Vatican came out against the Lisbon Treaty. The stories (or story) seem to originate in a Daily Telegraph piece on Thursday, reporting remarks apparently made by Cardinal Bertone Vatican Secretary of State during the pope’s visit to the Czech Republic last weekend – under the… » read more

Posted by Jim Murray

Sinn Fein spokesman not forecasting a Yes outcome on radio discussion. The (Trotskyite) Socialist Workers Party accepts a Yes outcome is likely -which according to Joe Higgins, would give a “1-1 result”. On no, – not a third referendum….. Nationwide, preliminary tallies all indicate a very strong Yes vote

Posted by Jim Murray

Apparently preliminary results from Tallaght indicate a pro-Yes trend. Tallaght, a Dublin suburb, was a No stronghold last time around. However, very few votes counted so far. Of the first 177 votes from Rathgar, only 20 were for No. Before breaking out the champagne, I should say that Rathgar, another Dublin suburb, would be expected… » read more

Posted by Jim Murray

COIR is a conservative Catholic group that seems to have been the biggest spenders on the No side, with claims such as Lisbon = Abortion and Euthanasia. A few days ago they appointed themselves as “monitors” of the election process, to ensure that there would be no fraud, ballot box stuffing, ballot boxes falling off… » read more

Posted by Jim Murray

Well, I hope so. Little hard news so far. Turnout seems to be just over 50%, not very different from last time, with some indications of a slightly higher turnout for the Yes side. The Fine Gael exit poll predicting a 60-40 Yes vote is not seen as especially reliable. The Irish Times headline is… » read more

Posted by Jim Murray

Now (01.00 Brussels) time, the Irish Times is also reporting a 60-40 Yes result from the Fine Gael exit poll. Don’t hold your breath – exit polls are not necessarily reliable.

Posted by Jim Murray

Now for the Count

Well, the polling booths have closed and the die is cast. Now come the forecasts of the result – the actual result will not be known until well into Saturday. Forecasting of the results in advance is an old Irish tradition. The turnout on a regional and district basis is the first straw in the… » read more

Posted by Jim Murray